Jerry Brown's California Revival
He’s no kid at age 74, but California Gov. Jerry Brown has staged a comeback this year that Bill Clinton could appreciate.
It looked as though Brown’s second go-round in the governor’s job might well end after a single term. He staked his governorship on a referendum to raise taxes that was in trouble approaching Election Day. His approval ratings were mired in the low 40s.
Buzz began to build about a primary challenge in 2014 — by Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, possibly, or the state’s ambitious lieutenant governor, Gavin Newsom.
But voters pulled through for Brown and approved his ballot measure to mend the long-broken state budget. And now Brown finds himself in prime position to achieve his ambitious agenda — and a virtual lock for re-election.
“He’s absolutely unbeatable in the state of California. Not even the Lord could beat him,” said former San Francisco Mayor and legendary Assembly Speaker Willie Brown. “California is Jerry Brown territory.”
In a political life that stretches back to the 1960’s, spanning one presidential campaign, three terms as governor, and a stint as Oakland mayor, Brown seems to be experiencing a career high of sorts. Voters also elected Democratic supermajorities to both chambers of the Legislature, removing the last check on the party’s near-total control of state government and relegating Republicans to something approaching minor-party status.
That could clear the way for an expansive agenda over the next two years, ranging from education and pension to an overhaul of California’s boom-or-bust tax structure.
That’s assuming, of course, Brown can get Democrats in the Legislature to fall in line.
As far as they can propel Brown’s agenda, statehouse Democrats also have the numbers to stymie him; a two-thirds majority can override his veto.
And after sweeping wins in November, liberals are eager to push through plans that Republicans have blocked in the past — such as making it easier for local governments to raise taxes, or restoring funding to government programs that have been slashed during the state’s long budget drought. Some progressives have expressed a desire to reform Proposition 13, which caps property taxes.
Those priorities could clash with Brown, who ran as a moderate, at least by California standards. Brown knows that Democrats risk losing the legislative super majority the party has fought so long for if Democrats overplay their hand.
“I think the governor would like some tough love for some things the Legislature holds dear,” said Steve Maviglio, a Democratic strategist in Sacramento and former top assembly aide. “It’s those kinds of fights we may see more of.”
Brown — who became the state’s youngest governor since the 1850s when he was elected in 1974 at age 36, then the oldest in 2010 — has not said whether he'll seek what would be his fourth term in 2014. He declined a request for an interview.
But should he run, there’s little doubt he would skate.
The governor’s popularity has frustrated the political ambitions of Villaraigosa and Newsom, two of the most prominent of the state’s younger generation of Democrats. Both are said to be more likely to wait until 2018, when the governor’s seat would be open again. They could also choose to wait for Sens. Dianne Feinstein, 79, and Barbara Boxer, 72, to retire.
Villaraigosa, in particular, presented a threat to Brown. Under California’s new “jungle primary” system, in which the top two finishers advance to the general election regardless of party affiliation, the mayor might have drawn the backing of the state’s exploding Latino population and forced Brown into a dogfight for a second term.
The election put an end to that kind of speculation.
“It would be extremely unwise for someone to take him on. He’s popular, he’s experienced. He’s not going to get caught in malapropos or malfeasance,” said Don Solem, who’s worked as a Democratic strategist in the state for more than 35 years. “Anybody who’s thinking about running should think about 2018, not 2014.”
Republicans, for their part, acknowledge they are unlikely to find a strong challenger to Brown — in large part because they don’t have a bench of strong statewide candidates. The most prominent California Republican, House Majority Whip Kevin McCarthy, isn’t in the running, people close to him say.
Aaron McLear, a former top adviser to former GOP Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, said the Republican Party is more focused on making itself relevant again than on finding someone to take on Brown. Democrats control every statewide office, and the GOP trails Democrats in voter registration by more than 14 percent.
“I think he’s incredibly safe,” McLear said of Brown.
Brown’s dominance was never guaranteed. Had Proposition 30, his ballot initiative to raise tax rates on upper income earners as well as the state sales tax, failed he would have been hobbled politically. It looked as if the initiative could go down: In the election’s closing days, support for it dipped below 50 percent in some polls.
But Brown barnstormed the state and put his personal stamp on the measure — he even dispatched his Pembroke Welsh corgi, Sutter, to the campaign trail — arguing that it was the only way to stave off deep spending cuts to schools. The proposition ultimately passed by 9 percentage points — the first time in two decades that California voters agreed to raise taxes on themselves.
The win, said Bay Area Democratic strategist Jim Ross, neutralized any case a potential challenger could have made against Brown in 2014.
“He put his personal credibility on the line to get this passed, which is why it was a big deal for him,” said Ross. “The guy’s in a real strong position right now.”
Others say Brown’s success goes beyond Proposition 30. From the first days of his administration, the governor embraced a tightfistedness that was an acknowledgement of California’s economic woes. He chose to forgo the trappings of his office, slashing the budget for his gubernatorial entourage and riding on South-West Airlines.
“He couldn't be in a stronger place politically,” said Dan Schnur, director of the University of Southern California’s Jesse M. Unruh Institute of Politics and one time communications director to former Republican Gov. Pete Wilson. “If he were 15 years younger, his people would be booking flights to Iowa and New Hampshire right now.”
By: Alex Isenstadt
December 22, 2012 04:03 PM EST
UPDATE; JAN 6 2012
SACRAMENTO -- On the eve of their swearing in last month, newly elected Assembly members gathered for a reception at the Stanford Mansion, where they were introduced one by one to Gov. Jerry Brown.
"Success," said the host of the reception, Assembly Speaker John A. Pérez, "is built on relationships," and the introductions Pérez facilitated were meant to forge ties with Brown.
Though the Democratic governor enjoyed a relatively favorable relationship with lawmakers of his party during the first two years of his term, the institution is significantly changed from last year.
Brown's ability to win friends and influence people in the new Legislature remains critical to his efforts to pass a budget and pursue other policy goals in the second half of his term.
He is pushing a major overhaul of California's school funding system, a rewrite of the state environmental review law and a controversial plan to move water through the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta to the south.
ASSOCIATED PRESS FILE
Gov. Jerry Brown, right, meets with Assembly Speaker John Pérez, D-Los Angeles, left, and Senate Speaker Darrell Steinberg, D-Sacramento, after a legislative session in August.
COULD THIS BE THE BEGINNING OF A RUN FOR THE WHITE HOUSE?
